Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 59.83%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 18.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.72%) and 0-2 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.98%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 2-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.