Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 38.05%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 32.43% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.57%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 0-1 (11.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Real Sociedad |
| 38.05% | 29.52% | 32.43% |
| Both teams to score 43.16% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.24% | 63.75% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.99% | 83.01% |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.62% | 32.38% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.1% | 68.89% |
| Real Sociedad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.83% | 36.16% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.05% | 72.94% |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Real Sociedad |
| 1-0 @ 13.2% 2-1 @ 7.57% 2-0 @ 7.44% 3-1 @ 2.85% 3-0 @ 2.8% 3-2 @ 1.45% Other @ 2.73% Total : 38.04% | 1-1 @ 13.43% 0-0 @ 11.7% 2-2 @ 3.85% Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.51% | 0-1 @ 11.91% 1-2 @ 6.83% 0-2 @ 6.06% 1-3 @ 2.32% 0-3 @ 2.05% 2-3 @ 1.31% Other @ 1.96% Total : 32.43% |