Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 52.87%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Girona had a probability of 21.85%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.29%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.94%), while for a Girona win it was 0-1 (7.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.