Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Besiktas win with a probability of 38.27%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 34.51% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Besiktas win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (10.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Besiktas would win this match.