Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 55.13%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.48%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.51%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (6.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.