Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 40.63%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.09%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (11.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.