Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 36.83%. A win for Girona had a probability of 36.26% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.08%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest Girona win was 0-1 (10.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.