Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 64.09%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Viktoria Plzen had a probability of 15.38%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.15%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Viktoria Plzen win it was 0-1 (4.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.