Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 36.42%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 35.26% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.72%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (11.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 36.42% | 28.32% | 35.26% |
| Both teams to score 46.83% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.57% | 59.43% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.2% | 79.8% |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.8% | 31.19% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.47% | 67.53% |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.07% | 31.93% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.62% | 68.38% |
| Score Analysis |
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 11.6% 2-1 @ 7.72% 2-0 @ 6.76% 3-1 @ 3% 3-0 @ 2.63% 3-2 @ 1.71% Other @ 3.01% Total : 36.42% | 1-1 @ 13.24% 0-0 @ 9.96% 2-2 @ 4.4% Other @ 0.71% Total : 28.31% | 0-1 @ 11.37% 1-2 @ 7.56% 0-2 @ 6.49% 1-3 @ 2.88% 0-3 @ 2.47% 2-3 @ 1.68% Other @ 2.82% Total : 35.26% |