Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shimizu S-Pulse win with a probability of 42.79%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shimizu S-Pulse win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.