Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nagoya Grampus win with a probability of 49.01%. A win for Shimizu S-Pulse had a probability of 25.85% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nagoya Grampus win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest Shimizu S-Pulse win was 0-1 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nagoya Grampus would win this match.