DFB-Pokal | First Round
Jul 31, 2022 at 5.01pm UK
Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion
Mainz logo

Erzgebirge Aue
0 - 3
Mainz 05


Sorge (50'), Nazarov (61'), Danhof (74')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Kohr (41'), Burgzorg (70'), Ingvartsen (78' pen.)
Caricol (14'), Kohr (51'), Stach (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's DFB-Pokal clash between Erzgebirge Aue and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Erzgebirge Aue

Last Six:
    Last Game: Dynamo Dresden 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue
    Sunday, May 15 at 2.30pm in 2.Bundesliga

    Mainz 05

    Last Six:
      Last Game: Mainz 05 1-0 Newcastle
      Monday, July 18 at 3pm in Club Friendlies 1

      Data Analysis

      Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Erzgebirge Aue win with a probability of 39.37%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 36.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

      The most likely scoreline for a Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.49%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

      Result
      Erzgebirge AueDrawMainz 05
      39.37% (0.031999999999996 0.03)24.16% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)36.47% (-0.026000000000003 -0.03)
      Both teams to score 60.81% (0.012 0.01)
      Goals
      Over 2.5Under 2.5
      58.31% (0.012999999999998 0.01)41.69% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
      Over 3.5Under 3.5
      35.91% (0.013999999999996 0.01)64.09% (-0.01100000000001 -0.01)
      Erzgebirge Aue Goals
      Over 0.5Under 0.5
      78.71% (0.021000000000001 0.02)21.29% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
      Over 1.5Under 1.5
      45.78% (0.033000000000001 0.03)54.22% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
      Mainz 05 Goals
      Over 0.5Under 0.5
      77.26% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)22.74% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
      Over 1.5Under 1.5
      43.58% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)56.42% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
      Score Analysis
          Erzgebirge Aue 39.37%
          Mainz 05 36.47%
          Draw 24.16%
      Erzgebirge AueDrawMainz 05
      2-1 @ 8.58% (0.0039999999999996 0)
      1-0 @ 7.49%
      2-0 @ 5.79% (0.0040000000000004 0)
      3-1 @ 4.43% (0.0049999999999999 0)
      3-2 @ 3.28% (0.0030000000000001 0)
      3-0 @ 2.99% (0.0030000000000001 0)
      4-1 @ 1.71% (0.002 0)
      4-2 @ 1.27% (0.00099999999999989 0)
      4-0 @ 1.16% (0.002 0)
      Other @ 2.68%
      Total : 39.37%
      		1-1 @ 11.09%
      2-2 @ 6.35% (0.0010000000000003 0)
      0-0 @ 4.84% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
      3-3 @ 1.62% (0.0010000000000001 0)
      Other @ 0.25%
      Total : 24.16%
      		1-2 @ 8.21% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
      0-1 @ 7.17% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
      0-2 @ 5.31% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
      1-3 @ 4.06% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
      2-3 @ 3.14%
      0-3 @ 2.62% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
      1-4 @ 1.5% (-0.002 -0)
      2-4 @ 1.16% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
      0-4 @ 0.97% (-0.002 -0)
      Other @ 2.34%
      Total : 36.47%

      How you voted: Erzgebirge Aue vs Mainz 05

      Erzgebirge Aue
      9.1%
      Draw
      0.0%
      Mainz 05
      90.9%
      11
      Head to Head
      Aug 18, 2018 5.30pm
      Erzgebirge Aue
      1-3
      Mainz 05
      Testroet (83')
      Rapp (34'), Tiffert (44'), Kalig (90')
      Maxim (31', 65'), Quaison (59')
      Maxim (28')
      Niakhate (3')