Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 42.31%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 33.25% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 2-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Mainz 05 in this match.