Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 4, 2021 at 11.15pm UK
Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar
Union La Calera0 - 2Velez Sarsfield
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bouzat (38'), Orellano (90+5')
Caseres (19'), Martin Lucero (45+2'), Bouzat (60'), Nicolas Mulet (90+4')
Caseres (19'), Martin Lucero (45+2'), Bouzat (60'), Nicolas Mulet (90+4')
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Union La Calera had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Union La Calera win was 1-0 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union La Calera | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 32.97% | 27.02% | 40.01% |
| Both teams to score 50.4% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.18% | 54.82% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.88% | 76.12% |
| Union La Calera Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.9% | 31.1% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.57% | 67.43% |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.16% | 26.84% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.86% | 62.14% |
| Score Analysis |
Union La Calera 32.97%
Velez Sarsfield 40.01%
Draw 27.02%
| Union La Calera | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 1-0 @ 9.75% 2-1 @ 7.49% 2-0 @ 5.69% 3-1 @ 2.92% 3-0 @ 2.22% 3-2 @ 1.92% Other @ 2.99% Total : 32.97% | 1-1 @ 12.82% 0-0 @ 8.35% 2-2 @ 4.92% Other @ 0.93% Total : 27.02% | 0-1 @ 10.98% 1-2 @ 8.43% 0-2 @ 7.22% 1-3 @ 3.7% 0-3 @ 3.17% 2-3 @ 2.16% 1-4 @ 1.22% 0-4 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.1% Total : 40.01% |
How you voted: Union La Calera vs Velez Sarsfield
Union La Calera
53.8%Draw
15.4%Velez Sarsfield
30.8%13


