Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 4, 2021 at 11.15pm UK
Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Union La Calera
0 - 2
Velez Sarsfield


Valencia (11'), Castellani (39'), Wiemberg (43'), Martin Arias (90+6')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bouzat (38'), Orellano (90+5')
Caseres (19'), Martin Lucero (45+2'), Bouzat (60'), Nicolas Mulet (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Union La Calera and Velez Sarsfield, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Union La Calera had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Union La Calera win was 1-0 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.

Result
Union La CaleraDrawVelez Sarsfield
32.97%27.02%40.01%
Both teams to score 50.4%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.18%54.82%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.88%76.12%
Union La Calera Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.9%31.1%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.57%67.43%
Velez Sarsfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.16%26.84%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.86%62.14%
Score Analysis
    Union La Calera 32.97%
    Velez Sarsfield 40.01%
    Draw 27.02%
Union La CaleraDrawVelez Sarsfield
1-0 @ 9.75%
2-1 @ 7.49%
2-0 @ 5.69%
3-1 @ 2.92%
3-0 @ 2.22%
3-2 @ 1.92%
Other @ 2.99%
Total : 32.97%
1-1 @ 12.82%
0-0 @ 8.35%
2-2 @ 4.92%
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 27.02%
0-1 @ 10.98%
1-2 @ 8.43%
0-2 @ 7.22%
1-3 @ 3.7%
0-3 @ 3.17%
2-3 @ 2.16%
1-4 @ 1.22%
0-4 @ 1.04%
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 40.01%

How you voted: Union La Calera vs Velez Sarsfield

Union La Calera
53.8%
Draw
15.4%
Velez Sarsfield
30.8%
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