Championship Gameweek 4
Sep 2, 2026 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Turf Moor
  • Hannibal 28' yellowcard
  • Ugo Raghouber 54' goal
  • Ugo Raghouber 90'+1' yellowcard
  • goal Aidan Morris 23'
  • yellowcard Will Lankshear 39'
  • yellowcard Alfie Jones 71'

Burnley vs Middlesbrough - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Burnley

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 3.00pm
Norwich 4 - 1 Burnley
Goals scored
6
Top scorer
Zian Flemming

Middlesbrough

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 12.30pm
Middlesbrough 3 - 1 West Brom
Goals scored
8
Top scorer
Will Lankshear

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 43.48%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 31.54% and a draw had a probability of 24.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.02%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-0 (8.83%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.

Result

Burnley 31.54% ▼ (-0.11)
Draw 24.95% ▲ (+0.08)
Middlesbrough 43.48% ▲ (+0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.68% ▼ (-0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.87% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 1.5 26.13% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 2.5 50.12% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 2.5 49.88% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 3.5 28.08% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 3.5 71.93% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 4.5 16.01% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 4.5 83.99% ▲ (+0.06)

First Half Winner

Burnley 20.65% ▲ (+0.03)
Draw 37.38% ▼ (-0.09)
Middlesbrough 41.97% ▲ (+0.07)

Team To Score First

Burnley 34.73% ▼ (-0.03)
No Goal 7.54% ▲ (+0.05)
Middlesbrough 57.73% ▼ (-0.04)

Corners

Over 8 58.25% ▲ (+0.05)
Equal 8 11.15% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 8 30.6% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 9 46.9% ▲ (+0.06)
Equal 9 11.35% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 9 41.75% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 10.5 36.26% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 10.5 63.74% ▼ (-0.08)

Burnley Goals

Over 1.5 31.65% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 1.5 68.35% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 2.5 11.34% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 2.5 88.66% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 3.5 3.26% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 3.5 96.74% ▲ (+0.04)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5 72.58% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 0.5 27.42% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 1.5 41.74%
Under 1.5 58.26%
Over 2.5 19%
Under 2.5 81%
Over 3.5 7.12%
Under 3.5 92.88%

Score analysis

Burnley 31.55%
Draw 24.95%
Middlesbrough 43.47%
Burnley
1-0 @ 8.83% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 7%
2-0 @ 5.44% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 2.82% ▼ (-0.03)
3-0 @ 2.38%
3-2 @ 1.88% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.2% ▼ (-0.05)
Total : 31.55%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.29% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 7.54% ▲ (+0.05)
2-2 @ 5.06% ▲ (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1%
Other @ 0.06% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 24.95%
Middlesbrough
0-1 @ 9.73% ▲ (+0.04)
1-2 @ 8.78% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 7.02% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 4.18% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 3.89% ▲ (+0.03)
2-3 @ 2.81% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 7.06% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 43.47%

Head to Head

Championship Gameweek 24
Dec 29, 2024 8.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Riverside Stadium
  • George Edmundson 2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Josh Cullen 54'
  • yellowcard Connor Roberts 83'
  • yellowcard Luca Koleosho 86'
Championship Gameweek 19
Dec 6, 2024 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Turf Moor
  • Connor Roberts 37' goal
  • Hannibal Mejbri 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Anfernee Dijksteel 13'
Championship Gameweek 40
Apr 7, 2023 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Riverside Stadium
  • Chuba Akpom 48' goal
  • goal Ashley Barnes 12'
  • goal Connor Roberts 66'
Championship Gameweek 23
Dec 17, 2022 3.00pm
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT Turf Moor
  • Manuel Benson 60' goal
  • Manuel Benson 67' goal
  • Jonny Howson 72' goal
  • goal Duncan Watmore 49'
Premier League
Apr 8, 2017 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • yellowcard Stephen Ward 45'
  • yellowcard Ashley Barnes 45'
  • yellowcard Michael Keane 85'
Premier League
Dec 26, 2016 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • George Boyd 21' yellowcard
  • Ben Mee 42' yellowcard
  • Jon Flanagan 54' yellowcard
  • Stephen Ward 66' yellowcard
  • Andre Gray 73' yellowcard
  • Andre Gray 80' goal
  • Jeff Hendrick 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marten de Roon 2'
  • yellowcard Gaston Ramirez 31'
  • yellowcard Antonio Barragan 45'
  • yellowcard Fabio Da Silva 80'
  • yellowcard Alvaro Negredo 90'