Championship Gameweek 4
Sep 2, 2026 8.00pm
Turf Moor

Burnley vs Middlesbrough - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Burnley

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 3.00pm
Norwich 4 - 1 Burnley
Goals scored
4
Top scorer
Zian Flemming

Middlesbrough

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 12.30pm
Middlesbrough 3 - 1 West Brom
Goals scored
6
Top scorer
Will Lankshear

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 43.46%. A win for Burnley has a probability of 31.64% and a draw has a probability of 24.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win is 0-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Burnley win is 1-0 (8.84%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.28%).

Result

Burnley 31.64% (+0.11)
Draw 24.87% (-0.03)
Middlesbrough 43.46% (-0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.76% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.93% (+0.03)
Under 1.5 26.07% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 50.19% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 49.81% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 28.15% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 71.85% (-0.05)
Over 4.5 16.07% (+0.04)
Under 4.5 83.93% (-0.03)

First Half Winner

Burnley 20.62%
Draw 37.47%
Middlesbrough 41.91%

Team To Score First

Burnley 34.75% (+0.01)
No Goal 7.49% (-0.03)
Middlesbrough 57.76% (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 58.2%
Equal 8 11.16%
Under 8 30.65%
Over 9 46.84%
Equal 9 11.36%
Under 9 41.8%
Over 10.5 36.19%
Under 10.5 63.81%

Burnley Goals

Over 1.5 31.72% (+0.08)
Under 1.5 68.28% (-0.07)
Over 2.5 11.39% (+0.07)
Under 2.5 88.61% (-0.07)
Over 3.5 3.29% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 96.71% (-0.04)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5 72.56% (-0.08)
Under 0.5 27.44% (+0.09)
Over 1.5 41.74% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 58.26% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 19% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 81% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 7.12%
Under 3.5 92.88%

Score analysis

Burnley 31.64%
Draw 24.86%
Middlesbrough 43.46%
Burnley
1-0 @ 8.84% (+0.03)
2-1 @ 7%
2-0 @ 5.45% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 2.84% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 2.38% (+0.03)
3-2 @ 1.89%
Other @ 3.24% (+0.04)
Total : 31.64%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.28%
0-0 @ 7.49% (-0.03)
2-2 @ 5.05% (-0.01)
Other @ 0.05%
Total : 24.86%
Middlesbrough
0-1 @ 9.7% (-0.04)
1-2 @ 8.79% (-0.03)
0-2 @ 7.01% (-0.03)
1-3 @ 4.19%
0-3 @ 3.87% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.83%
Other @ 7.07%
Total : 43.46%

Head to Head

Championship Gameweek 24
Dec 29, 2024 8.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Riverside Stadium
  • George Edmundson 2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Josh Cullen 54'
  • yellowcard Connor Roberts 83'
  • yellowcard Luca Koleosho 86'
Championship Gameweek 19
Dec 6, 2024 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Turf Moor
  • Connor Roberts 37' goal
  • Hannibal Mejbri 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Anfernee Dijksteel 13'
Championship Gameweek 40
Apr 7, 2023 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Riverside Stadium
  • Chuba Akpom 48' goal
  • goal Ashley Barnes 12'
  • goal Connor Roberts 66'
Championship Gameweek 23
Dec 17, 2022 3.00pm
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT Turf Moor
  • Manuel Benson 60' goal
  • Manuel Benson 67' goal
  • Jonny Howson 72' goal
  • goal Duncan Watmore 49'
Premier League
Apr 8, 2017 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • yellowcard Stephen Ward 45'
  • yellowcard Ashley Barnes 45'
  • yellowcard Michael Keane 85'
Premier League
Dec 26, 2016 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • George Boyd 21' yellowcard
  • Ben Mee 42' yellowcard
  • Jon Flanagan 54' yellowcard
  • Stephen Ward 66' yellowcard
  • Andre Gray 73' yellowcard
  • Andre Gray 80' goal
  • Jeff Hendrick 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marten de Roon 2'
  • yellowcard Gaston Ramirez 31'
  • yellowcard Antonio Barragan 45'
  • yellowcard Fabio Da Silva 80'
  • yellowcard Alvaro Negredo 90'