Championship
Southampton
May 12, 2026 8.00pm
2
1
ET St. Mary's Stadium
Middlesbrough
  • Ross Stewart 45'+1' goal
  • Flynn Downes 66' yellowcard
  • Cyle Larin 84' yellowcard
  • Samuel Edozie 85' yellowcard
  • Shea Emmanuel Charles 116' goal
  • Cameron Bragg 119' yellowcard
  • Welington 119' yellowcard
  • 119' yellowcard
  • goal Riley McGree 5'
  • yellowcard Alan Browne 73'
  • yellowcard Leo Castledine 83'
  • yellowcard Jeremy Sarmiento 106'
  • yellowcard Sontje Hansen 119'
  • yellowcard 120'+1'

Southampton vs Middlesbrough - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions
Last game
May 9, 2026 12.30pm
Middlesbrough 0 - 0 Southampton
Goals scored
84
Top scorer
Cyle Larin

Middlesbrough

All competitions
Last game
May 9, 2026 12.30pm
Middlesbrough 0 - 0 Southampton
Goals scored
73
Top scorer
Morgan Whittaker

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 40.3%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 33.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 0-1 (8.06%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.

Result

Southampton 40.3%
Draw 26.08% ▲ (+0.04)
Middlesbrough 33.62%

Both Teams to Score: 

55.69% ▲ (+0.01)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.41% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 24.59% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 51.45%
Under 2.5 48.55%
Over 3.5 28.63% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 3.5 71.37% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 4.5 15.63% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 4.5 84.37% ▲ (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Southampton 32.32%
Draw 37.52%
Middlesbrough 30.16%

Team To Score First

Southampton 47.09% ▲ (+0.04)
No Goal 6.86% ▲ (+0.02)
Middlesbrough 46.05% ▼ (-0.05)

Corners

Over 8 66.32%
Equal 8 10.89%
Under 8 22.79%
Over 9 54.38%
Equal 9 11.94%
Under 9 33.68%
Over 10.5 42.48%
Under 10.5 57.52%

Southampton Goals

Over 1.5 40.23%
Under 1.5 59.77%
Over 2.5 16.09%
Under 2.5 83.91%
Over 3.5 5.2%
Under 3.5 94.8%

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5 68.2% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 0.5 31.8% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 1.5 35.13%
Under 1.5 64.87%
Over 2.5 13.94%
Under 2.5 86.06%
Over 3.5 4.45%
Under 3.5 95.55%

Score analysis

Southampton 40.31%
Draw 26.07%
Middlesbrough 33.62%
Southampton
1-0 @ 9.67%
2-1 @ 9.04% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 6.81%
3-1 @ 3.87% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 3.39% ▲ (+0.02)
3-2 @ 2.46% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 5.07%
Total : 40.31%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.1% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 6.86% ▲ (+0.02)
2-2 @ 5.81%
3-3 @ 1.17% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 26.07%
Middlesbrough
0-1 @ 8.06%
1-2 @ 7.88% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 5.04%
1-3 @ 3.33% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 2.51% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.48% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 4.32%
Total : 33.62%

Head to Head

Championship
Middlesbrough
May 9, 2026 12.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Riverside Stadium
Southampton
  • Alan Browne 68' yellowcard
  • Jeremy Sarmiento 79' yellowcard
  • Leo Castledine 79' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ross Stewart 60'
  • yellowcard Kuryu Matsuki 69'
  • yellowcard Shea Emmanuel Charles 69'
  • yellowcard Samuel Edozie 86'
Championship Gameweek 26
Middlesbrough
Jan 4, 2026 3.00pm
4
0
HT : 0 0
FT Riverside Stadium
Southampton
  • Alan Browne 6' yellowcard
  • Morgan Whittaker 54' goal
  • Sam Silvera 61' goal
  • Morgan Whittaker 66' goal
  • Alan Browne 76' goal
  • Alex Gilbert 82' yellowcard
  • Micah Hamilton 90' yellowcard
  • Sverre Nypan 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Cameron Bragg 61'
  • yellowcard Welington 74'
  • yellowcard Cameron Archer 74'
  • yellowcard Elias Jelert 74'
  • yellowcard Ross Stewart 85'
Championship
Southampton
Sep 27, 2025 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Middlesbrough
Championship Gameweek 39
Southampton
Mar 29, 2024 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT St. Mary's Stadium
Middlesbrough
  • Adam Armstrong 12' goal
  • Flynn Downes 34' yellowcard
  • Stuart Armstrong 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Luke Ayling 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Emmanuel Latte Lath 50'
  • yellowcard Isaiah Jones 50'
  • yellowcard Finn Azaz 62'
  • yellowcard Lewis O'Brien 70'
  • goal Emmanuel Latte Lath 90'
Championship Gameweek 8
Middlesbrough
Sep 23, 2023 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Riverside Stadium
Southampton
  • Riley McGree 44' goal
  • Isaiah Jones 53' yellowcard
  • Hayden Hackney 58' yellowcard
  • Jonny Howson 66' goal
  • Tommy Smith 90'+6' yellowcard
  • goal Adam Armstrong 17'
  • yellowcard Russell Martin 54'
Premier League
Middlesbrough
May 13, 2017 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Southampton
  • Adam Clayton 66' yellowcard
  • Patrick Bamford 73' goal
  • Ben Gibson 86' yellowcard
  • Marten de Roon 90' yellowcard
  • goal Jay Rodriguez 42'
  • goal Nathan Redmond 57'

Form Data

Middlesbrough 0 - 0 Southampton
Preston 1 - 3 Southampton
Southampton 2 - 2 Ipswich
Man City 2 - 1 Southampton
Southampton 2 - 2 Bristol City
Swansea 1 - 2 Southampton
Middlesbrough 0 - 0 Southampton
Wrexham 2 - 2 Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough 5 - 1 Watford
Middlesbrough 1 - 0 Sheff Weds
Ipswich 2 - 2 Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough 0 - 1 Portsmouth

Build-up

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