Championship
May 2, 2026 12.30pm
2
2
HT : 2 2
FT Racecourse Ground
  • Josh Windass 28' goal
  • Sam Smith 41' goal
  • Nathan Broadhead 63' yellowcard
  • Ben Sheaf 63' yellowcard
  • Kieffer Moore 73' yellowcard
  • Ryan Longman 73' yellowcard
  • D. Keillor-Dunn 83' yellowcard
  • goal Tommy Conway 4'
  • goal David Strelec 43'
  • yellowcard Riley McGree 45'
  • yellowcard Riley McGree 46'
  • yellowcard Leo Castledine 71'
  • yellowcard Jeremy Sarmiento 71'
  • yellowcard Kaly Sène 87'

Wrexham vs Middlesbrough - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Wrexham

All competitions
Last game
Apr 26, 2026 12.00pm
Coventry 3 - 1 Wrexham
Goals scored
69
Top scorer
Josh Windass

Middlesbrough

All competitions
Last game
Apr 25, 2026 12.30pm
Middlesbrough 5 - 1 Watford
Goals scored
72
Top scorer
Morgan Whittaker

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 43.55%. A win for Wrexham had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.09%) and 0-2 (6.67%). The likeliest Wrexham win was 2-1 (7.42%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result

Wrexham 30.98% (+0.04)
Draw 25.47% (-0.04)
Middlesbrough 43.55%

Both Teams to Score: 

58.77%

Goals

Over 1.5 78.94% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 21.06% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 56.03% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 43.97% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 33.47% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 66.53% (-0.04)
Over 4.5 19.24% (+0.03)
Under 4.5 80.76% (-0.04)

First Half Winner

Wrexham 24.09%
Draw 38.82%
Middlesbrough 37.09%

Team To Score First

Wrexham 40.42%
No Goal 5.82%
Middlesbrough 53.76%

Corners

Over 8 61.45%
Equal 8 11.19%
Under 8 27.37%
Over 9 49.74%
Equal 9 11.71%
Under 9 38.55%
Over 10.5 38.52%
Under 10.5 61.48%

Wrexham Goals

Over 1.5 35.16% (+0.06)
Under 1.5 64.84% (-0.07)
Over 2.5 13.64% (+0.05)
Under 2.5 86.36% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 4.26% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 95.74% (-0.02)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5 76.08% (-0.02)
Under 0.5 23.92% (+0.03)
Over 1.5 45.98% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 54.02% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 21.46%
Under 2.5 78.54%
Over 3.5 8.19%
Under 3.5 91.81%

Score analysis

Wrexham 30.99%
Draw 25.47%
Middlesbrough 43.55%
Wrexham
2-1 @ 7.42%
1-0 @ 7.16%
2-0 @ 4.79% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 3.15% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.31% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 2.23% (+0.01)
Other @ 3.93% (+0.02)
Total : 30.99%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.44% (-0.04)
2-2 @ 6.19%
0-0 @ 5.82%
3-3 @ 1.69%
Other @ 0.33%
Total : 25.47%
Middlesbrough
1-2 @ 9.35%
0-1 @ 8.09% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 6.67%
1-3 @ 4.89%
0-3 @ 3.57% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 3.12% (+0.02)
Other @ 7.86%
Total : 43.55%

Head to Head

Championship
Oct 25, 2025 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT