Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.16%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 23.11% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.39%) and 0-2 (8.69%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
Result | ||
Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne City |
23.11% | 22.73% | 54.16% |
Both teams to score 57.06% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.22% | 42.77% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.82% | 65.18% |
Newcastle Jets Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.72% | 32.28% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.22% | 68.78% |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.26% | 15.74% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.16% | 44.84% |
Score Analysis |
Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne City |
2-1 @ 6.01% 1-0 @ 5.75% 2-0 @ 3.25% 3-1 @ 2.26% 3-2 @ 2.09% 3-0 @ 1.22% Other @ 2.53% Total : 23.11% | 1-1 @ 10.62% 2-2 @ 5.55% 0-0 @ 5.08% 3-3 @ 1.29% Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.73% | 1-2 @ 9.82% 0-1 @ 9.39% 0-2 @ 8.69% 1-3 @ 6.05% 0-3 @ 5.35% 2-3 @ 3.42% 1-4 @ 2.8% 0-4 @ 2.48% 2-4 @ 1.58% 1-5 @ 1.04% 0-5 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.63% Total : 54.16% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 27 | 20 | 52 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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