Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 63.66%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 17.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.09%) and 0-1 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.74%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 2-1 (4.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 17.06% | 19.28% | 63.66% |
| Both teams to score 58.96% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.46% | 35.54% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.41% | 57.59% |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.96% | 34.04% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.28% | 70.72% |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.38% | 10.62% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.57% | 34.43% |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 4.71% 1-0 @ 3.9% 2-0 @ 2.1% 3-2 @ 1.9% 3-1 @ 1.69% Other @ 2.77% Total : 17.06% | 1-1 @ 8.74% 2-2 @ 5.28% 0-0 @ 3.61% 3-3 @ 1.42% Other @ 0.24% Total : 19.28% | 1-2 @ 9.8% 0-2 @ 9.09% 0-1 @ 8.11% 1-3 @ 7.32% 0-3 @ 6.79% 1-4 @ 4.11% 2-3 @ 3.95% 0-4 @ 3.81% 2-4 @ 2.21% 1-5 @ 1.84% 0-5 @ 1.71% 2-5 @ 0.99% Other @ 3.93% Total : 63.66% |