Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 47%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 29.59% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.97%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 29.59% | 23.4% | 47% |
| Both teams to score 60.96% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.59% | 40.4% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.21% | 62.78% |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.85% | 26.14% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.78% | 61.21% |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.53% | 17.46% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.06% | 47.93% |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 7.17% 1-0 @ 6.12% 2-0 @ 4.11% 3-1 @ 3.21% 3-2 @ 2.8% 3-0 @ 1.84% 4-1 @ 1.08% 4-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.33% Total : 29.59% | 1-1 @ 10.68% 2-2 @ 6.26% 0-0 @ 4.57% 3-3 @ 1.63% Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.39% | 1-2 @ 9.33% 0-1 @ 7.97% 0-2 @ 6.95% 1-3 @ 5.43% 0-3 @ 4.04% 2-3 @ 3.64% 1-4 @ 2.37% 0-4 @ 1.76% 2-4 @ 1.59% Other @ 3.94% Total : 47.01% |