Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 41.96%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 30.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 0-1 (9.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.