Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 59.95%. A draw had a probability of 22.65% and a win for Ghana had a probability of 17.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%) , while for a Ghana win it was 0-1 (5.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.