Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Penarol win with a probability of 44.83%. A draw has a probability of 28.65% and a win for Defensor Sporting has a probability of 26.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win is 0-1 with a probability of 14.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (8.93%) and 1-2 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (13.52%) , while for a Defensor Sporting win it is 1-0 (10.28%).