Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 40.62%. A win for Liverpool had a probability of 30.21% and a draw had a probability of 29.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest Liverpool win was 0-1 (10.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (14.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.