Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 15
Cerro Largo
May 12, 2026 12.30am
Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Penarol

Cerro Largo vs Penarol - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Cerro Largo

All competitions
Uruguayan Primera Division
Last game
May 3, 2026 1.30pm
Progreso 0 - 1 Cerro Largo

Penarol

All competitions
Uruguayan Primera Division
Last game
May 4, 2026 11.30pm
Penarol 1 - 1 Defensor

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Penarol win with a probability of 56.3%. A draw has a probability of 25.96% and a win for Cerro Largo has a probability of 17.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win is 0-1 with a probability of 15.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (11.32%) and 1-2 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.34%) , while for a Cerro Largo win it is 1-0 (7.1%).

Result

Cerro Largo 17.74% ▼ (-0.06)
Draw 25.96% ▼ (-0.15)
Penarol 56.3% ▲ (+0.20)

Both Teams to Score: 

43.55% ▲ (+0.10)

Goals

Over 1.5 66.99% ▲ (+0.27)
Under 1.5 33.01% ▼ (-0.28)
Over 2.5 41.46% ▲ (+0.31)
Under 2.5 58.54% ▼ (-0.31)
Over 3.5 20.99% ▲ (+0.20)
Under 3.5 79.01% ▼ (-0.20)
Over 4.5 11.12% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 4.5 88.88% ▼ (-0.16)

First Half Winner

Cerro Largo 16.26%
Draw 45.57%
Penarol 38.18%

Team To Score First

Cerro Largo 28.37% ▲ (+0.04)
No Goal 10.72% ▼ (-0.12)
Penarol 60.91% ▲ (+0.09)

Corners

Over 8 43.9%
Equal 8 12.67%
Under 8 43.43%
Over 9 32.36%
Equal 9 11.54%
Under 9 56.1%
Over 10.5 22.72%
Under 10.5 77.28%

Cerro Largo Goals

Over 1.5 16.84% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 1.5 83.16% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 2.5 3.77% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 2.5 96.23% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 0.73% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 99.27% ▼ (-0.02)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5 78.06% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 0.5 21.94% ▼ (-0.21)
Over 1.5 45.85% ▲ (+0.29)
Under 1.5 54.15% ▼ (-0.29)
Over 2.5 20.26% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 2.5 79.74% ▼ (-0.22)
Over 3.5 6.87% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 3.5 93.13% ▼ (-0.11)

Score analysis

Cerro Largo 17.75%
Draw 25.97%
Penarol 56.3%
Cerro Largo
1-0 @ 7.1% ▼ (-0.08)
2-1 @ 4.44% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 2.85% ▼ (-0.03)
3-1 @ 1.22% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.72% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 17.75%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.34% ▼ (-0.03)
0-0 @ 10.72% ▼ (-0.12)
2-2 @ 3.5% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 25.97%
Penarol
0-1 @ 15.21% ▼ (-0.07)
0-2 @ 11.32% ▲ (+0.04)
1-2 @ 9.92% ▲ (+0.03)
0-3 @ 5.54% ▲ (+0.05)
1-3 @ 5.17% ▲ (+0.04)
2-3 @ 2.28% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 6.86% ▲ (+0.12)
Total : 56.3%

Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
Cerro Largo
Sep 27, 2025 10.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 0
FT
Penarol
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 2
Cerro Largo
Jun 1, 2025 9.30pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Penarol
  • Facundo Bonifazi 29' goal
  • Nicolas Bertochi 40' yellowcard
  • Maximiliano Anasco 45'+2' yellowcard
  • 69' yellowcard
  • Sebastian Assis 69' yellowcard
  • goal Diego Garcia 26'
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 9
Penarol
Mar 31, 2025 12.30am
0
2
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio Campeon del Siglo
Cerro Largo
  • Rodrigo Perez 20' yellowcard
  • Rodrigo Perez 20' yellowcard
  • Jaime Baez 57' redcard
  • Jaime Baez 57' redcard
  • goal Nicolas Bertochi 28'
  • goal Nicolas Bertochi 28'
  • yellowcard Nicolas Bertochi 51'
  • yellowcard Nicolas Bertochi 51'
  • yellowcard Leandro Otormin 70'
  • yellowcard Leandro Otormin 70'
  • goal Leandro Otormin 76'
  • goal Leandro Otormin 76'
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 1
Penarol
Aug 17, 2024 9.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Campeon del Siglo
Cerro Largo
  • Tomas Olase Curutchet 73' redcard
  • yellowcard Axel Prado 29'
  • yellowcard Julian Contrera 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Matias Mir 84'
  • yellowcard Sebastian Assis 86'
  • yellowcard Javier Cabrera 87'
  • yellowcard Nicolas Cabral 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Nicolas Cabral 90'+3'
  • redcard Matias Mir 90'+6'
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 1
Cerro Largo
Feb 18, 2024 11.00pm
1
2
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Centenario
Penarol
  • <TBD> 10' goal
  • Jairo Coronel 25' yellowcard
  • Mauro Brasil 32' yellowcard
  • Sergio Nunez 44' goal
  • Lucas Correa 67' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Maximiliano Olivera 32'
  • yellowcard Leo Coelho 50'
  • goal Leonardo Sequeira 59'
  • goal Leonardo Fernandez 68'
  • yellowcard Ignacio Sosa 79'
  • yellowcard Leonardo Fernandez 82'
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 10
Penarol
Nov 15, 2023 12.30am
1
1
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio Campeon del Siglo
Cerro Largo
  • Sebastian Rodriguez 9' yellowcard
  • Sebastian Rodriguez 10' yellowcard
  • Nahuel Herrera 46' yellowcard
  • Nahuel Herrera Viera 47' yellowcard
  • Franco Gonzalez 86' goal
  • Franco Gonzalez 86' goal
  • goal Sergio Nunez 4'
  • goal Sergio Nunez 6'
  • yellowcard Tiago Galletto 35'
  • yellowcard Tiago Galletto 36'
  • yellowcard Santiago Viera 39'
  • yellowcard Santiago Viera 40'
  • yellowcard Matias Mir 58'
  • yellowcard Matias Mir 58'
  • yellowcard Mauro Brasil 69'
  • yellowcard Mauro Brasil 69'
  • yellowcard Mauro Brasil 88'
  • yellowcard Joaquin Fernandez Benitez 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Joaquin Fernandez 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Adolfo Lima 90'+7'
  • yellowcard Adolfo Lima 90'+7'

Form Data

Progreso 0 - 1 Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo 0 - 1 Racing
Boston River 1 - 0 Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo 1 - 1 Cerro
Albion 2 - 2 Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo 2 - 0 Danubio
Platense 1 - 1 Penarol
Penarol 1 - 1 Defensor
Corinthians 2 - 0 Penarol
Wanderers 1 - 0 Penarol
Penarol 2 - 2 Juventud
Penarol 1 - 2 Platense