Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 10
Apr 4, 2026 11.00pm
Parque Abraham Paladino

Progreso vs Penarol - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Progreso

All competitions
Uruguayan Primera Division
Last game
Mar 31, 2026 3.00pm
Progreso 3 - 3 Liverpool

Penarol

All competitions
Uruguayan Primera Division
Last game
Mar 29, 2026 11.30pm
Penarol 1 - 2 Racing

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Penarol win with a probability of 66.28%. A draw has a probability of 20.82% and a win for Progreso has a probability of 12.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win is 0-1 with a probability of 14.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (13.53%) and 1-2 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.76%) , while for a Progreso win it is 1-0 (5.31%).

Result

Progreso 12.9% (-0.34)
Draw 20.82% (-0.59)
Penarol 66.28% (+0.99)

Both Teams to Score: 

43.54% (+0.62)

Goals

Over 1.5 72.15% (+1.47)
Under 1.5 27.85% (-1.47)
Over 2.5 46.63% (+1.90)
Under 2.5 53.32% (-1.94)
Over 3.5 24.79% (+1.10)
Under 3.5 75.21% (-1.11)
Over 4.5 15.66% (+0.92)
Under 4.5 84.34% (-0.91)

First Half Winner

Progreso 19.64% (+0.42)
Draw 39.03% (-0.73)
Penarol 41.34% (+0.34)

Team To Score First

Progreso 28.25% (+0.90)
No Goal 7.86% (-0.54)
Penarol 63.89% (-0.35)

Corners

Over 8 50.74% (+2.31)
Equal 8 12.05%
Under 8 37.2% (-2.33)
Over 9 39.12% (+2.09)
Equal 9 11.62% (+0.21)
Under 9 49.26% (-2.31)
Over 10.5 28.83% (+1.74)
Under 10.5 71.17% (-1.74)

Progreso Goals

Over 1.5 13.04% (+0.20)
Under 1.5 86.96% (-0.21)
Over 2.5 2.15% (+0.09)
Under 2.5 97.85% (-0.09)
Over 3.5 0.44% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 99.56% (+0.05)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5 83.81% (+0.96)
Under 0.5 16.19% (-0.95)
Over 1.5 55.28% (+1.69)
Under 1.5 44.72% (-1.69)
Over 2.5 28.46% (+1.41)
Under 2.5 71.54% (-1.40)
Over 3.5 12.36% (+0.90)
Under 3.5 87.64% (-0.91)

Score analysis

Progreso 12.91%
Draw 20.83%
Penarol 66.3%
Progreso
1-0 @ 5.31% (-0.34)
2-1 @ 3.42% (+0.11)
2-0 @ 2.19% (-0.15)
Other @ 0.43% (-0.04)
Total : 12.91%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.76% (-0.25)
0-0 @ 7.86% (-0.54)
2-2 @ 3.05% (+0.13)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 20.83%
Penarol
0-1 @ 14.72% (-0.55)
0-2 @ 13.53% (-0.06)
1-2 @ 9.75% (+0.25)
0-3 @ 8.25% (+0.33)
1-3 @ 5.47% (+0.10)
2-3 @ 2.23% (+0.03)
Other @ 12.35% (+0.91)
Total : 66.3%

Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 1
Aug 2, 2025 12.00am
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 1
Feb 1, 2025 11.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Centenario
  • Adrian Colombino 61' yellowcard
  • Luis Fernando Caicedo Estacio 73' yellowcard
  • Luis Maldonado 87' yellowcard
  • Nicolas Gonzalez 90'+2' goal
  • goal Jaime Baez 20'
  • yellowcard Javier Mendez 33'
  • yellowcard Eduardo Darias 47'
  • goal Diego Garcia 62'
  • goal Maximiliano Silvera 75'
  • yellowcard Ignacio Sosa 77'
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 14
Nov 27, 2024 12.00am
1
5
HT : 0 4
FT Estadio Centenario
  • Jorge Gonzalez 20' yellowcard
  • Jorge Gonzalez 20' yellowcard
  • Mario Garcia 26' yellowcard
  • Mario Garcia 26' yellowcard
  • Pablo Caballero 41' yellowcard
  • Pablo Caballero 41' yellowcard
  • Mauro Joaquin Martin Colman 55' yellowcard
  • Mauro Joaquin Martin Colman 55' yellowcard
  • Bruno Joaquin Hernandez Alvarez 90'+1' goal
  • Bruno Joaquin Hernandez Alvarez 90'+1' goal
  • goal Rodrigo Perez 38'
  • goal Rodrigo Perez 38'
  • goal Maximiliano Silvera 43'
  • goal Maximiliano Silvera 43'
  • yellowcard Javier Mendez 45'
  • yellowcard Javier Mendez 45'
  • goal Alan Medina 63'
  • goal Alan Medina 63'
  • goal Facundo Batista 68'
  • goal Facundo Batista 68'
  • yellowcard Leonardo Fernandez 75'
  • yellowcard Leonardo Fernandez 75'
  • goal Facundo Batista 86'
  • goal Facundo Batista 86'
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 3
Jun 22, 2024 9.00pm
HT : 0 0
Estadio Centenario
  • Alejandro Garcia 44' yellowcard
  • Sebastian Cardozo 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Javier Cabrera 84' yellowcard
  • Nicolas Fernandez 85' yellowcard
  • goal Franco Gonzalez 61'
  • yellowcard Leonardo Sequeira 69'
  • yellowcard Guzman Rodriguez 81'
  • yellowcard Javier Cabrera 85'
  • goal Leonardo Fernandez 90'+1'
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 14
May 24, 2024 12.00am
3
1
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio Campeon del Siglo
  • Ignacio Sosa 54' yellowcard
  • Ignacio Sosa 54' yellowcard
  • Leo Coelho 59' goal
  • Leo Coelho 59' goal
  • Leo Coelho 66' yellowcard
  • Leo Coelho 66' yellowcard
  • Leo Coelho 70' goal
  • Leo Coelho 70' goal
  • Angel Gonzalez 72' yellowcard
  • Angel Gonzalez 72' yellowcard
  • Lucas Hernandez 90'+2' goal
  • Lucas Hernandez 90'+2' goal
  • yellowcard Joel Poiso 40'
  • yellowcard Joel Poiso 40'
  • goal Martin Gianoli 44' (OG)
  • goal Martin Gianoli 44' (OG)
  • yellowcard Martin Marta 63'
  • yellowcard Martin Marta 63'
  • yellowcard Alexis Piegas 78'
  • yellowcard Alexis Piegas 78'
  • yellowcard Facundo Silvera 83'
  • yellowcard Facundo Silvera 83'
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 14
Nov 25, 2021 7.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Alvaro Fuerte 29' yellowcard
  • Maximiliano Viera 47' yellowcard
  • Rodrigo Formento 56' yellowcard
  • Jonathan Barboza 63' yellowcard
  • Andres Romero 76' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Giovanni Gonzalez 51'
  • yellowcard Edgarl Elizalde 53'
  • yellowcard Walter Gargano 67'
  • yellowcard Ignacio Laquintana 71'
  • yellowcard Damian Musto 90'+1'