Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Penarol win with a probability of 66.28%. A draw has a probability of 20.82% and a win for Progreso has a probability of 12.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win is 0-1 with a probability of 14.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (13.53%) and 1-2 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.76%) , while for a Progreso win it is 1-0 (5.31%).