Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 47.4%. A draw had a probability of 30.4% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.5%) , while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (9.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.