Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 36.82%. A draw had a probability of 32.5% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 30.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.17%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.33%) , while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.