Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 44.31%. A draw had a probability of 28.52% and a win for Albion had a probability of 27.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (8.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.26%) , while for a Albion win it was 1-0 (9.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.