Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 61%. A draw had a probability of 24.61% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 14.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.61%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%) , while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (6.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.