Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Penarol win with a probability of 60.75%. A draw has a probability of 24.85% and a win for Cerro has a probability of 14.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win is 1-0 with a probability of 17.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (12.66%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.38%) , while for a Cerro win it is 0-1 (6.73%).