Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 55.42%. A draw had a probability of 26.74% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 17.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.62%) and 1-2 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%) , while for a Boston River win it was 1-0 (7.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.