Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.96%. A draw had a probability of 27.68% and a win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 24.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.15%) , while for a Racing de Montevideo win it was 0-1 (8.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.