Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 44.06%. A draw had a probability of 28.71% and a win for Liverpool had a probability of 27.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.59%) , while for a Liverpool win it was 0-1 (9.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.