Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Fe win with a probability of 38.45%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 34.97% and a draw had a probability of 26.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Fe win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.69%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (10.83%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.