Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 63.11%. A draw had a probability of 23.01% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 13.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.31%) and 1-2 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.37%) , while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.