Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 36.04%. A win for Platense had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 29.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.33%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Platense win was 1-0 (11.98%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.