Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boston River win with a probability of 36.44%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 34.5% and a draw had a probability of 29.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boston River win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 0-1 (11.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.