Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 43.33%. A draw had a probability of 30.81% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 25.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.69%) , while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 0-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.