Taca de Portugal | Fourth Round
Nov 26, 2023 at 3pm UK
Estadio Dr. Magalhaes Pessoa

Uniao de Leiria
5 - 0
Atletico Malveira

Amado (18', 23'), Silva (27'), Baixinho (37'), Ribeiro (88')
Nunes (54')
FT(HT: 4-0)

Duarte (53')
Coverage of the Taca de Portugal Fourth Round clash between Uniao de Leiria and Atletico Malveira.

Form, Standings, Stats

Uniao de Leiria

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Last Game: Viseu 1-3 Uniao de Leiria
Saturday, October 21 at 8pm in Taca de Portugal
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Atletico Malveira

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Last Game: Atletico Malveira 2-1 AD Marco 09 (7-6 pen.)
Saturday, October 21 at 4.30pm in Taca de Portugal
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uniao de Leiria win with a probability of 86.9%. A draw had a probability of 9.4% and a win for Atletico Malveira had a probability of 3.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uniao de Leiria win was 3-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.95%) and 4-0 (10.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.45%), while for an Atletico Malveira win it was 0-1 (1.45%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uniao de Leiria would win this match.

Result
Uniao de LeiriaDrawAtletico Malveira
86.9% (0.136 0.14)9.37% (-0.089 -0.09)3.73% (-0.0469 -0.05)
Both teams to score 39.01% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.52% (0.20500000000001 0.21)30.47% (-0.206 -0.21)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
48.24% (0.244 0.24)51.76% (-0.245 -0.24)
Uniao de Leiria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
95.32% (0.058999999999997 0.06)4.68% (-0.059 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
80.99% (0.178 0.18)19% (-0.178 -0.18)
Atletico Malveira Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
40.92% (-0.058 -0.06)59.07% (0.056000000000004 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
9.83% (-0.029 -0.03)90.17% (0.028000000000006 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Uniao de Leiria 86.88%
    Atletico Malveira 3.73%
    Draw 9.37%
Uniao de LeiriaDrawAtletico Malveira
3-0 @ 13.22% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 12.95% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
4-0 @ 10.12% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
1-0 @ 8.46% (-0.062999999999999 -0.06)
3-1 @ 6.96% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-1 @ 6.82% (-0.036 -0.04)
5-0 @ 6.2% (0.055000000000001 0.06)
4-1 @ 5.33% (0.016 0.02)
5-1 @ 3.27% (0.023 0.02)
6-0 @ 3.17% (0.041 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.83% (-0.006 -0.01)
6-1 @ 1.67% (0.019 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.4% (0.002 0)
7-0 @ 1.39% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 4.09%
Total : 86.88%
1-1 @ 4.45% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-0 @ 2.76% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-2 @ 1.8% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 9.37%
0-1 @ 1.45% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 1.17% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 1.11%
Total : 3.73%