Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 70.4%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 11.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.83%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.71%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (4.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.