Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 46.53%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 27.85% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.

Result
Casa Pia	Draw	Nacional
46.53% ( -0.06)	25.62% ( -0)	27.85% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 52.33% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.79% (

0.07)

51.21% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.95% (

0.06)

73.05% (

-0.05)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78% (

-0)

22% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.69% (

-0.01)

55.31% (

0.01)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.08% (

0.09)

32.92% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.51% (

0.1)

69.49% (

-0.1)

Score Analysis

Casa Pia 46.53%

Nacional 27.85%

Draw 25.61%

Casa Pia	Draw	Nacional
1-0 @ 10.96% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.22% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.3% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.66% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.19% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.76% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.59% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 2.28% Total : 46.53%	1-1 @ 12.18% 0-0 @ 7.24% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.13% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.61%	0-1 @ 8.05% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.77% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.51% Total : 27.85%