Nacional
Taca da Liga | First Round
Jul 22, 2023 at 3.30pm UK
Estadio da Madeira
Penafiel

Nacional
0 - 0
Penafiel

FT

Batista (40'), Cardoso (64'), Teixeira (90+4')
Nacional win 0-0 on penalties
Coverage of the Taca da Liga First Round clash between Nacional and Penafiel.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last Game: Braga 2-2 Nacional
Tuesday, April 25 at 7.30pm in Taca de Portugal

Penafiel

All competitions
Last Game: Estrela Amadora 1-1 Penafiel
Saturday, December 17 at 7pm in Taca da Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 39.66%. A win for Penafiel had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Penafiel win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.

Result
NacionalDrawPenafiel
39.66% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)26.59%33.75% (0.045999999999999 0.05)
Both teams to score 51.94% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.06% (0.015000000000001 0.02)52.94% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.46% (0.012999999999998 0.01)74.54% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.83% (-0.015999999999991 -0.02)26.16% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.75% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)61.24% (0.023999999999994 0.02)
Penafiel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.35% (0.036999999999992 0.04)29.65% (-0.035 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.3% (0.042999999999999 0.04)65.7% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 39.65%
    Penafiel 33.75%
    Draw 26.58%
NacionalDrawPenafiel
1-0 @ 10.4% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.48% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
2-0 @ 6.97% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-1 @ 3.79% (-0.004 -0)
3-0 @ 3.12% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.3%
4-1 @ 1.27% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.05% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 39.65%
1-1 @ 12.64%
0-0 @ 7.76% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-2 @ 5.15% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 0.93% (0.001 0)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.58%
0-1 @ 9.43% (0.004999999999999 0)
1-2 @ 7.69% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.73% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.12% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.32% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.09% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-4 @ 0.95% (0.003 0)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 33.75%