Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 59.64%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 18.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.05%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.23%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-0 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.