Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 46.24%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 28.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.