Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 44.64%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 30.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Benfica |
30.21% ( -0.37) | 25.16% ( 0.24) | 44.64% ( 0.13) |
Both teams to score 55.27% ( -1.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.96% ( -1.24) | 48.04% ( 1.24) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.79% ( -1.15) | 70.21% ( 1.15) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.44% ( -0.88) | 29.56% ( 0.87) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.41% ( -1.08) | 65.59% ( 1.08) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.47% ( -0.46) | 21.53% ( 0.46) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.4% ( -0.71) | 54.59% ( 0.71) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 7.76% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 4.73% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.95% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 1.92% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.33% Total : 30.21% | 1-1 @ 11.91% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 6.37% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.14) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.15% | 0-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 9.15% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.51% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 4.68% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 3.84% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 1.8% ( -0.05) 0-4 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.46% Total : 44.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
12 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
13 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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