Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 76.79%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 8.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.27%) and 0-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.93%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (2.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.