Primeira Liga | Gameweek 28

Apr 15, 2023 at 3.30pm UK

Estádio dos Barreiros

Maritimo
3 - 1
Pacos de Ferreira

Vidigal (29'), Val (42'), Costa (69')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Butzke (79' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Maritimo and Pacos de Ferreira, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Maritimo

All competitions

Last Game: Arouca 1-0 Maritimo
Saturday, April 8 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Pacos de Ferreira

All competitions

Last Game: Pacos de Ferreira 1-3 Famalicao
Saturday, April 8 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 29.16% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.

Result
Maritimo	Draw	Pacos de Ferreira
43.68% ( -0.26)	27.16% ( 0.13)	29.16% ( 0.13)

Both teams to score 48.51% (

-0.29)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.48% (

-0.41)

56.52% (

0.41)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.49% (

-0.33)

77.51% (

0.33)

Maritimo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.32% (

-0.31)

25.68% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.4% (

-0.43)

60.59% (

0.43)

Pacos de Ferreira Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.28% (

-0.12)

34.72% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.55% (

-0.12)

71.45% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

Maritimo 43.68%

Pacos de Ferreira 29.16%

Draw 27.15%

Maritimo	Draw	Pacos de Ferreira
1-0 @ 12.12% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 8.24% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.95% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.09% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.23% Total : 43.68%	1-1 @ 12.82% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 8.92% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.15%	0-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 6.78% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.99% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.18% Total : 29.16%