Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 29.16% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
Result | ||
Maritimo | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
43.68% ( -0.26) | 27.16% ( 0.13) | 29.16% ( 0.13) |
Both teams to score 48.51% ( -0.29) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.48% ( -0.41) | 56.52% ( 0.41) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.49% ( -0.33) | 77.51% ( 0.33) |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.32% ( -0.31) | 25.68% ( 0.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.4% ( -0.43) | 60.59% ( 0.43) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.28% ( -0.12) | 34.72% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.55% ( -0.12) | 71.45% ( 0.12) |
Score Analysis |
Maritimo | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
1-0 @ 12.12% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 8.24% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.95% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.09% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.23% Total : 43.68% | 1-1 @ 12.82% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 8.92% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.15% | 0-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 6.78% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.99% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.18% Total : 29.16% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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