Decision Day in the 2022 MLS campaign is fast approaching, as Orlando City and the Columbus Crew will square off at Exploria Stadium on Sunday, knowing that a victory for either side would assure them of a spot in the post-season.
Currently, the Crew are clinging to the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with 46 points, one more than the Lions.
Match preview
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From a campaign which appeared destined to see at least one playoff game, Orlando City are suddenly trying to salvage this season before it is too late.
Until September, their place in the post-season never looked to be in doubt as they won their last four domestic games in August and began last month by capturing the US Open Cup.
Rather than carrying that momentum, though, Oscar Pareja has often seen his players self-destruct since that run, losing four of their last five MLS affairs.
On Wednesday, they missed an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth for a third successive season, conceding in the opening minute versus Inter Miami and eventually falling 4-1.
Oscar Pareja will be happy to know that this match will be on their home field, where they have put together some of their most convincing performances this year.
The Lions have captured eight wins at Exploria Stadium in 2022, posting four clean sheets, including in their previous encounter when they defeated Toronto 4-0.
They have not lost a home fixture against Columbus since 2017, losing only two of the nine matches played against them in Orlando.
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Another team who missed a chance to claim a spot in the post-season this week was the Crew, who were minutes away from defeating Charlotte FC on Wednesday before Andre Shinyashiki equalised for the home side deep into stoppage time.
That ending has been an all too familiar feeling for Caleb Porter and his team in 2022, as Columbus have dropped 11 points in the 90th minute or later this year, which is three more than any other MLS side has ever squandered in a league campaign.
Columbus head into Decision Day winless in six consecutive matches played away from home, despite being in a position to win four of those contests.
Even though they have missed many opportunities to earn points this year, the Crew have a few ways they can get into the playoffs, as a win or draw against Orlando City would put them through, while an FC Cincinnati loss versus DC United combined with a draw in this match would vault Columbus and the Lions into the post-season.
When this team can net at least a couple of times over 90 minutes, they will likely come away with something, as they have never lost in 2022 when scoring multiple goals.
One more goal this weekend would equal their total amount scored last season, while scoring more than one would match their highest output in a regular season since 2017.
Team News
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Ercan Kara had the only goal for Orlando in their midweek defeat against Miami, Rodrigo Schlegel collected his 70th career cap for the Lions and also made his 50th start, while Facundo Torres broke the club's single-season goal contributions record (24), having notched 11 goals and 13 assists in all competitions this year, which is one more than Nani's total in 2019.
Pareja inserted three new faces into the starting 11 on Wednesday, including Kyle Smith, Benji Michel and Tesho Akindele.
Antonio Carlos will not be available for this pivotal clash because of a yellow card suspension, Robin Jansson still has a problem in his right lower leg, while Alexandre Pato and Joey DeZart are both dealing with right knee injuries.
A brilliant long-range effort from Lucas Zelarayan in midweek gave the Crew the first-half lead, as his strike from 56 yards was the fourth-longest goal in league history since 2010.
In their match against Charlotte, Luis Diaz scored for the first time since late August, and Cucho Hernandez returned to the lineup after being suspended in their 1-1 draw against the New York Red Bulls.
Josh Williams moved beyond Wil Trapp into eighth in all-time appearances for the Crew, collecting cap number 206 on Wednesday.
Jonathan returned from a left thigh injury this week as he started in place of Milos Degenek at centre-back, while Derrick Etienne, Hernandez and Zelarayan also began that match, with Erik Hurtado, Artur and Kevin Molino all starting on the bench.
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Moutinho, Schlegel, Smith, Ruan; Araujo, Pereyra; Michel, Urso, Torres; Kara
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Santos, Williams, Degenek, Moreira; Morris, Nagbe; Etienne, Zelarayan, Diaz; Hernandez
We say: Orlando City 2-1 Columbus Crew
The Crew have an edge in terms of individual quality and match-winners, but they have had far too many defensive breakdowns this season at the most inopportune times, not the mention they have had a miserable campaign away from home, losing more road games than any side in MLS (10).
If this match were in Columbus, we would be inclined to predict a victory for the Crew, however, the Lions have been much more disciplined and solid defensively at home, which we believe will frustrate the visitors.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
