Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 60.23%. A draw had a probability of 21.64% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 18.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.03%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.86%) , while for a Toulouse win it was 0-1 (4.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.