Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 39.16%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 33.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Lorient win was 0-1 (9.95%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.